October 2025 Legislative Report

Submitted October 19 by Horst Meister

The Oregon Legislature is currently not in session. Your property and money are safe until the short session begins on Monday February 2, 2026. 

Obamacare, Premium Subsidies and Government Shutdown

The Federal Government is shut down because Democrats insist on extending existing insurance premium subsidies for health insurance policies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), while Republicans are equally adamant that government should be funded first, then they’ll negotiate subsidies with Democrats. Senate Democrats are refusing to pass the Republicans’ funding bill until Republicans agree to extend the current health insurance premium subsidies.

Most Americans who buy their own health insurance qualify for federal tax credits that subsidize their insurance premiums. Those subsidies were made more generous during the pandemic, but the increased subsidies will expire unless Congress extends them.

Republicans state that there’s plenty of time to negotiate because the premium subsidies do not expire until the end of December. 

Democrats state that Congressional Republicans could refuse to negotiate after they vote for the funding bill, and there isn’t much the Democrats could do about that because Republicans control the House and the Senate.

Democrats state the Republicans had months to negotiate before the fiscal year ended on September 31, and they did not. Democrats state that the start of open enrollment is the real deadline for premium subsidy negotiations. Open enrollment starts on November 1, 2025 and ends on January 15, 2026. Health insurers will quote policy premiums for 2026 based on the current subsidies expiring on December 31, 2025 because that is current law.

Health insurance premiums for ACA plans are rising by an average of 18 percent nationwide next year. The federal government website healthcare.gov is expected to post 2026 premiums before the end of October. Healthcare.gov includes 28 state marketplaces.

2026 Premiums Have Become Public in Some States

Based on the subsidies expiring, a family of four making $130,000 in Maine would face an increase of $16,100 in annual premiums

In Kentucky, a 60-year-old couple making $85,000 per year could face an increase of $23,700 in annual premiums. 

In Nevada, a similar couple could pay an additional $18,100 in annual premiums. 

In Minnesota, the cost might be $15,500 more and, in Maryland, an additional $13,700.

Americans with very low incomes, who currently pay nothing for their insurance, could see their cost increase by as much as $82 a month. 

Higher earners would see much bigger price jumps. Older customers in the most expensive markets could be hit with increases of more than $1,000 a month.

The average costumer is likely to see out-of-pocket payments more than double, according to a recent analysis from KFF, a nonpartisan health issues research group.

Analysts at the Congressional Budget Office estimate the higher prices could cause around two million people to become uninsured next year.

The Oregon Division of Financial Regulation (DFR) states that households in middle-income brackets or in rural parts of the state may experience substantial increases in premiums and out-of-pocket costs. DFR expects most Oregonians who buy plans from the marketplace (about 126,000 at the end of the second quarter of 2025 according to DFR) will see substantial premium increases. For a few, the increase could be as much as three to four times their 2025 premiums.

If the Democrats win, rural Republican voters who buy ACA health insurance will save a ton of money.

More info: Oregon Division of Financial Regulation website, health insurance page –

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) 

H.R.1, the reconciliation bill passed by Congress in July, made major changes in SNAP eligability. Notably, Congress refused benefits to certain legal immigrants, tightened up work requirements and saddled much of SNAP’s administration costs on the states. (H.R.1 is also known as “One Big Beautiful Bill” or the “Up Yours America” bill (UYA) – I prefer the latter.) 

On October 1, the Oregon Department of Human Services (ODHS) published estimates of the impact that the UYA bill changes to the SNAP program would have on Oregonians. 

The average family’s SNAP benefit is $300 a month. ODHS states that 740,000 Oregonians receive SNAP benefits. ODHS estimates that more than 313,000 of them may be impacted by the UYA bill. The people who will be most affected by the UYA are older adults, certain lawfully present immigrants and people living in rural communities with limited access to transportation. 

The UYA bill is a fine piece of legislative engineering calculated to deny benefits to qualified families by imposing detailed requirements to qualify that many recipients are unable to meet, and application procedures that are difficult to follow correctly. 

Families can apply for SNAP benefits online, but internet access can be a problem particularly in rural areas. Internet service is expensive. Folks who don’t have enough money for food are not likely to be able to afford internet service.

Public transportation is limited in rural Oregon. People who qualify for benefits but don’t drive or don’t have access to a car may be unable to visit local ODHS offices in time to complete their applications.

Persons between the ages of 18 and 64 who are not disabled and don’t have a child under 14 in their household are required to work or volunteer 80 hours a month in order to qualify for SNAP benefits, but jobs can be mighty scarce in rural Oregon, depending on where the applicant lives. (Most SNAP recipients who are able to work already have jobs.)

Veterans, homeless people and young adults leaving foster care are no longer exempt from the work rules under the UYA. It wouldn’t be a Republican bill if the UYA didn’t trash immigrants: refugees, asylum seekers, trafficking survivors and other conditionally allowed immigrants who were eligible for SNAP benefits in the past will lose eligibility under the UYA.

According to ODHS, at least 3,000 people will lose SNAP benefits. An estimated 20,000 households will have their benefits reduced under the UYA.

More info about the UYA’s changes to SNAP, visit the ODHS website

“If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.” President Dwight D. Eisenhower. 

Sources: KFF, Oregon Department of Financial Regulation, New York Times, Oregon Department of Human Services, Associated Press, Oregon Capitol Chronicle, Congressional Budget Office, The Guardian 

(Some sources were only used for cross-checking)